‘currency trading’ Tagged Posts

A Shockingly Simple Stock Trading Momentum Indicator

Following a trend is great. But if the trend is moving quickly, you want to know that so that you can get ahead of it. If the rate of change of the ...

 

Following a trend is great. But if the trend is moving quickly, you want to know that so that you can get ahead of it. If the rate of change of the trend is going up, rising prices are going to follow quickly.

What we have been talking about is Momentum! Just like high school physics, momentum is the rate of change and is calculated by dividing the closing price today by the closing price ten days back and multiplying it by hundred.

This is your shockingly simple momentum indicator that you can use profitably in your trading. Now, if the price did not change, the momentum indicator will obviously will be 100. If the price went down, the momentum indicator will be less than 100 and if the price went up, the momentum indicator will be more than 100. Now, when the momentum indicator is greater than 100, the trend is expected to continue in the future.

This momentum indicator tells you what is most likely to happen in the future not what happened in the past. So it is a leading indicator. You must have heard about momentum investing or you can even call it momentum trading. In momentum investing , you buy a security at a high price and sell it even at a more higher price unlike ordinary investing where you buy low and sell high. The trick is to know that the price will continue to rise when you do momentum investing. How do you know that the security prices will continue to rise in the future? By looking at the business fundamentals like the sales or profits, if you find them to be rising and accelerating at the same time the security price is rising,there is momentum behind this move!

As said before, instead of investing in a security or a stock you can do momentum investing. When you are doing ordinary investing, you are waiting for its price to appreciate to give you a capital gain. This price appreciation might take from a few months to even years tying down your capital in that investing. However, in momentum investing, you search for stocks that have rising prices that are expected to continue for sometime. So you buy high and sell even higher within a few weeks making a decent profit. You can use that profit to do more investing.

What a momentum investor is looking for is a security that is going to move big. But this move big is going to happen on a long term horizon instead of a few days. The expectation is to make money on the longer term. The thought is that if the security is starting to go up in price, it will keep going up in prices unless something dramatic happens to change. In the meantime, you can make a lot of money.

There are many way to do momentum investing. One is the price momentum that we have talked above. The other can be Earning Momentum. If you are a long haul investor who keeps an eye on the financial statements of different companies and you find that the quaterly earnings are going up steadily from one quater to another. What this means is that the stock price will also accelerate and follow suit.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Get this 49 page Quantum Swing Trading Report plus the shocking Profit Button Report that applies no matter what you trade- stocks, forex, futures or options FREE. Read the story of Richard Samuels, a post office mailman with a head injury and how he made a fortune with these Neutrino Forex Signals.

Leverage – Is This A Strategy For You?

 

Leverage is a term used in investment circles to explain a type of borrowing. Its investment jargon, so it may sound complex. Its simply describes the process of borrowing to invest, where there is some kind of security underpinning the borrowing. This could be a house in a property loan, or stocks in a margin loan.

If you have not borrowed to invest before, but are considering it, you really should discuss this with a licensed financial advisor before you do. The concepts provided in this article are general in nature and should not be taken as specific advice to be applied to your specific circumstances. A financial advisor will be able to tailor a borrowing structure which perfectly matches your goals.

When I started investing, my borrowing habits where the same as most peoples. I had a floating credit card debt which varied to my whims. I had a small personal loan for some household items and a bigger one which enabled me to buy my car.

The problems with these types of debt are two fold. To start with, the items I bought when I borrowed are all depreciating items. That is, their value decreases as they get older. The second thing is, due to the fact that I borrowed to buy things I could use personally, (as opposed to a money making use) I could not claim the interest on the borrowings for tax purposes.

Things have changed over the years. I learned that debt is much more efficient when spent on investments. So now my credit card debt is negligible and paid off every month. My personal loans are completely paid off. Despite this, I have a lot more debt. I have a massive debt on an investment property. I have a margin loan for share trading. And I have a FOREX investment account which is leveraged at 400:1 (Which means I borrow $400 for every $1 I put in)

So what are the benefits of borrowing to invest?

When you borrow to invest, you increase your investment earnings potential. As you borrow money, you have more to invest. Therefore, the returns on your investments increase by the net returns on the borrowed money. Obviously the basic key here is to ensure your investment return rate is higher than the interest rates on the loan. If this is the case, you will always make money with the money you have borrowed.

Generally speaking also, interest payments on investment borrowing are tax deductible (get advice from your accountant on this point). As the borrowings have been made to increase your income, the interest payments on the loans are a direct cost of your income production. This typically makes the interest payments a tax deduction. For example, as my investment property creates a rental income, the borrowing are a cost associated with producing that rental income.

Margin loans work similarly. Basically I buy a bunch of stocks, fund 50% of the purchases myself and borrow the other 50% in a margin loan. This means I can double the size of my share portfolio and hopefully make a lot more money. Because I borrowed money though to buy the stocks which will make me money, the interest accrued in the margin loan is tax deductible.

So there are definite advantages you can gain from leveraging your investments. There are risks also though, which is why you should seek proper financial advice prior to moving down this path.

So what are the risks associated with borrowing for investment purposes? One of the obvious risks relates to your financial capacity. There is the risk you over-extend yourself and cannot meet the repayment obligations on your loans. When taking out a loan, you need to be sure you can pay the loan repayments.

In a margin loan situation, it is a little different. If you borrow too much here, you may breach the allowable % of assets to debt you are given and if this happens, you will be expected to put more money in to put the loan back in “good order”. This can be quite difficult if the market swings strongly against you. So you need to know that in extremely adverse market conditions (2007 – 2009 are a good example of this) you can generate enough income to cover such margin calls.

There is alway also the possibility that your trading strategy loses money. If this happens, because you borrowed so you could invest more, you lose more money.

One of the reasons its important to speak to a licensed financial adviser is that these risk can be managed properly with the correct strategy. This will make managing your risk much easier and making money on you borrowing much easier. With the right strategy, leveraging your investments can be extremely beneficial.

Gnifrus Urquart has enjoyed impressive success investing for many years. As such, he enjoys reviewing investment strategies and giving trading tips to anyone interested in investing

categories: Loans,Finance,Leverage,Credit,Money Management,money,investing,currency trading,forex,stock market,property,mortgage,real estate

Index Options Investing (Part II)

 

Index options premium all depends on the volatility of the market. The duller the market, the lower the index options premium. Well it depends on the expectations of the traders whether the market will move sufficiently in the near future for them to exercise their buy or sell rights. The more volatile the market, the higher then index option premium! Infact there are many factors that can affect the options premium like theta Vega, gamma. Now what are these terms and from where they have cropped up? These terms are known as the options Greeks. Before you start trading options, you need to learn what these terms means.

Options offer investors far more trading strategies as compared to futures. Such strategies can range from highly speculative to highly conservative. Options are a far more basic instrument than the ETFs and futures. You can easily replicate any ETF or futures contract with an option but the reverse is not true. In case, the market does not decline, you only lose the premium that you had paid for the put option. Suppose, you are afraid that the market is going to go down in the near future! You can protect yourself from this decline in the market by buying a out index option. When the market declines, the put increases in value.

Of course for anyone who buys an options contract there should be someone to sell the options contract to make a complete transaction. Now the seller of a call options believes that the market will not move sufficiently up in the near future so he/she can make money by writing a call options contract and selling it to someone who believes the maker will move up.

The buyers of the put options are in a way insuring their portfolio against possible market decline but who are the sellers of the put options. They are primarily those investors who are willing to buy those stocks but only at lower prices. So in a way, buying and selling of options contracts make options trading a zero sum game. Either the market will move up or it will not. Either the option seller will win or the options buyer will win. The development of the stock index futures and the index options was a major development in 1980s for investors and money managers.

So in a way, buying and selling of options contracts make options trading a zero sum game. Either the market will move up or it will not. Either the option seller will win or the options buyer will win. The development of the stock index futures and the index options was a major development in 1980s for investors and money managers. The buyers of the put options are in a way insuring their portfolio against possible market decline but who are the sellers of the put options. They are primarily those investors who are willing to buy those stocks but only at lower prices. Options are an important component of any money manager portfolio. Many hedging strategies now depend on options.

ETFs give you the familiarity of the stocks but like index futures much higher liquidity and superior tax efficiency. The Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) gave the investor still more ways to diversify across all market with very low costs.

Index options give the investors the ability to insure the value of their portfolios at the lowest possible prices and save on the transaction costs and taxes. Why don’t you try trading index options?

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

categories: forex,stocks,currency trading,finance,investing,business,real estate,ecommerce,trading,day trading,money,market news,mutual funds,personal finance

Growth Stocks

 

Capitalization or cap refers to the combined value of all the share of a company’s stocks. The division between large cap, mid cap and small cap are often blurry and not sharp. When you start looking for good stocks, you often come across these terms like large cap, mid cap, small cap, growth and value. Let’s discuss these terms for a moment.

Mid caps are companies with $1 to $5 Billion in capitalization and small caps are companies with $250 million to $1 Billion in capitalization. Anything below $250 million can be considered as micro cap. However the following divisions are generally accepted: Large caps are companies with over $5 Billion in capitalization.

Perhaps the most important ratio is the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). Now the most important term that you come across is growth stocks and value stocks. How do you determine this is a growth stock or a value stock? Suppose, company ABC stock is presently selling for $50. Now suppose that last year company ABC earned $5 for every share of the stock outstanding. This means stock ABC P/E ratio is 50/5=10. So the higher the P/E ratio, the more investors are willing to pay for the stock. What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides the price of the stock by the earnings per share.

Now the higher the P/E ratio, the more growth the company is supposed to have. So it can be either the company is growing real fast of the investor have high hopes of its growth. Now these hopes can be realistic or foolish, you never know! Now, if you follow financial news than you must know that the large growth companies always grab the headlines. But do the growth stocks really make best investment? The lower the P/E ratio, the more value the company has. Low P/E ratio companies are not considered to be the movers and shakers in the market.

The lower the P/E ratio, the more value the company has. Low P/E ratio companies are not considered to be the movers and shakers in the market. Now, if you follow financial news than you must know that the large growth companies always grab the headlines. But do the growth stocks really make best investment? According to Fama and French, two famous researchers who did ground breaking research on stocks, over the last 77 years, large growth stocks have only seen 9.9% annualized rate of return as compared to 11.5% for the large value stocks.

The most probable cause seems to be their immense popularity. Since most of the headlines are captures by high growth companies, investors seem to think that they are the best investments. Now intuitively you might have thought that growth stocks are better. What can be the reason for their lower performance over the years?

Let’s go back to the IPO of Google. Think about Google, how its stock price shot up within a matter of weeks after it hit the market. Weeks after that it began to cool off. In 2007, Google stock was selling something around $500. So large growth stocks tend to get overpriced before you are able to buy them!

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

categories: forex,stocks,mutual funds,finance,investing,business,wealth,trading,day trading,ecommerce,real estate,market news,currency trading,money

Green Energy Stocks Investing

 

The end of fossil fuel resources is near. The way oil and other natural resources have been extracted from the earth in the last century; the world is in danger of facing global warming as well as depletion of these precious resources. Do you know China is the largest producer of coal? Coal production n China would peak somewhere around 2010-2020. Are you aware of the fact that the peak of the global oil production (all liquids, including unconventional oil) will peak in the next few years.

The global peak of uranium production lies somewhere around2025-2050. The global peak of natural gas production lies somewhere around 2025! You must be thinking what to do every available source of energy seems to be peaking in the near future?

But there are many safe and environmentally friendly methods to generate the energy required. Uptill now these methods had been ignored maybe because they were a bit expensive. They were expensive in the sense that these methods factor in the external costs that were previously being ignored. Do you know this fact that the US Department of Energy has estimated that there is enough available offshore wind energy of the coasts of US that can nearly cover the current US electricity capacity? So what will fill this void in energy production in the coming decades?

If every bulb in the US was replaced with an energy efficient fluorescent lamp, enough energy could be saved to shut down around 100 power plants. If all the care in US were hybrids by 2025 that would roughly reduce 80% of the US oil import.

So the solution is already there but it requires investments which are right now not forth coming. This will soon change as the global supply of oil starts to dwindle. The solution is already there and as the end of fossil fuel nears which is only a decade away, more and more alternative energy solutions will be used to generate cheap energy. Enough power could be generated for the entire US by covering only 9% of Nevada desert with parabolic trough systems. This is something like a plot of land 100 by 100 miles.

This is something that is bound to happen. The supplies of fossil fuel are finite and will be exhausted in the near future. You might have seen only a glimpse of that last year in 2008 when crude oil prices jumped to around $150 per barrel.

This prediction is based on our insatiable energy consumption and the lack of conventional supplies to meet the growing energy demand. This is most probably the safest long term bet that you can make in the long term. There is little doubt that companies operating in the green energy sector will ultimately become the major players in the overall energy generation and transportation mix of tomorrow.

Exactly one hundred years back, the oil century started. It was with the advent of the modern automobile that oil became a global necessity. Imagine Henry Ford in’09 asking you to invest in his Ford Motor Company that is about to mass produce a horseless carriage. Keeping in view the above facts, investing in green energy stocks in the best long term investment that you can make!

He tells you that this invention could change the entire landscape of the country. Knowing everything that you know right now with the power of hind sight with you, you will definitely say yes. But many folks in that year of’09 were skeptical about Model T success. This is now 2009, exactly a century has passed. Do you think investing in green energy stocks is a bad idea?

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

Stock Investing 101

 

Every investor wants stock prices in his/her portfolio to go up. What would make a stock rise so much? The whole point of investing in stocks is to choose one that has the greatest chance of a rising share value. Don’t we all look for a stock that we could buy for $10 and later on sell for $300 per share? Well, how can we proceed to accomplish such a feat?

So if the company does well, its stock will go up in price and if the company does poorly its stock will go down in price. Buying a stock is essentially buying a small piece of the company and its future potential for growth and profits.

Now why does the stock goes up and down with the performance of the company. Actually the real force behind the stock rise and fall is the market place. The marketplace is in fact buyers and sellers, individuals and organizations that want to buy stocks or sell them.

Any place where buying and selling takes place can be considered This buying and selling of stocks can only take place in exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and over the counter markets like NASDAQ. If there are more buyers of the stock, its value will go up and if there are more sellers in the market, the stock price goes down.

Now it doesn’t mean that if the company does well and is showing good profits and earnings, its stock price will go up. Sometimes you will find that the company does well and is posting good quarterly earnings but still its stock price goes down. What’s the reason behind this?

In reality the price of stock depends on the investor’s expectations. The price of a stock goes down because there are more sellers than buyers. So why is it so? The stock price does not go up or down just based on the company’s present performance. Stock price goes up and down because of what the buyers and sellers expect will happen with the company in the near future.

However, the performance of the stock and the performance of the company over the long term have a logical relationship. In the short term, the behavior of the stock price is irrational and it can behave in crazy and illogical ways.

The bottom line is don’t worry about the short term gyrations of the stock price. Focus on finding companies that are strong, well positioned in the right industries and have solid fundamentals like a good management, good product, good service, growing industry, rising sales, increasing profits and so on. Picking a stock doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Understanding the company’s industry and the overall economic environment is critical to stock picking process. Sometimes the industry and the economy matters more than the company.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot System!

categories: forex,stocks,currency trading,mutual funds,finance,investing,business,wealth,ecommerce,real estate,market news,trading,day trading,money

Master Limited Partnership (Part I)

 

Many analysts are of the opinion that commodity investing maybe the best investments in the early part of the 21st century. Take the name of oil, oil is the most heavily traded commodity in the world right now. Gold is another commodity that is reaching record price levels. Gold prices for the first time have breached the unheard of $1000 per ounce barrier. Investing in commodities may be the something that investors thought of boring and dull only a few decades back but not anymore now. If you are interested in investing in companies that are involved in the production, transformation and distribution of commodities, than one of the best ways to do so is through investing in the Master Limited Partnership (MLP).

MLPs are public entities that trade on public exchanges. An MLP issues shares that trade on an exchange just like a company stocks that trades on an exchange. You can invest in an MLP by buying its shares on an exchange. The shares that an MLP issues are called Units and the investors who own them are known as Unit Holders.

Right now there are not many MLPs in the market. You will only find 3-4 dozen MLPs listed in the different stock exchanges. When you invest in an MLP, you are essentially investing in public partnership. There are tax advantages to investing in MLP. Unlike regular corporations, an MLP is only taxed once. Now most of the MLPs trade on the New York Stock Exchange. A few MLPs also trade on the NASDAQ and the AMEX. Tax exemption on MLPs gives them certain benefits that other companies in the same industry lack. There is a tax exemption on MLPs. You must be curious how this tax advantage works out. Because of

Suppose you invest $1 in the stocks of a regular corporation and you are in the 35% tax bracket. Corporate tax is 30% of it’s before tax income. This means that for each dollar that you invest you need to get at least $1/ (1-0.35) =$1.54 just in order to breakeven. So the corporation will have to generate $1.54/ (1-0.3) =$2.2 for each dollar that you invest in order to return you $1 after tax profit. Since an MLP has got the tax exempt status it will only have to generate only $1.54 for each dollar that you invest in it.

Since an MLP has got the tax exempt status it will only have to generate only $1.54 for each dollar that you invest in it. Suppose you invest $1 in the stocks of a regular corporation and you are in the 35% tax bracket. Corporate tax is 30% of its before tax income. This means that for each dollar that you invest you need to get at least $1/ (1-0.35) =$1.54 just in order to breakeven. So the corporation will have to generate $1.54/ (1-0.3) =$2.2 for each dollar that you invest in order to return you $1 after tax profit. In most cases, the majority of these GPs in MLPs are other corporate entities setup with the specific purpose of running an MLP. This tax advantage gives an MLP competitive advantage as compared to other corporations when competing for assets. This means a huge advantage for an MLP. Now an MLP is run by a General Partner (GP).

However, most GPs do a good job of running the MLP as it is in their financial interests. Now you must know as a limited partner in an MLP, you have limited voting rights. This means when you invest in an MLP, you are giving away the keys of ownership to the GP. This means you are out of the decision making in an MLP.

An MLP is obligated to distribute all available cash back to its unit holders on a quarterly basis, so you will be getting a quarterly income from your units. Secondly as the MLP expands and grows overtime, its units may give you capital gain as well. Investing in MLP units can give you quarterly cash flows as well as appreciation of the unit price. However, always do your due diligence when you want to invest in an MLP.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

categories: forex,stocks,trading,mutual funds,day trading,investing,business,finance,ecommerce,wealth,currency trading,market news,personal finance,real estate

Crude Oil Futures (Part II)

 

Crude oil trades around the world. Crude oil is one of the most heavily traded commodities in the world. Every day perhaps billions of dollars worth of crude oil gets traded. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is considered to be the hub of crude oil trading in the world.

Every day perhaps billions of dollars worth of crude oil gets traded. You must be thinking that crude oil contracts get traded between the oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Russia, Nigeria and so on with non oil countries. Now to your surprise, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is considered to be the hub of crude oil trading in the world. You should be aware of the power of crude oil in the global economy. Crude oil trades around the world. Crude oil is one of the most heavily traded commodities in the world.

At NYMEX, crude oil futures contracts based on Dubai Crude Oil, Brent North Sea Crude Oil, differential between the light sweet crude oil and the four domestic grades of crude oil as well as oil options are traded.

At NYMEX, you can trade crude oil futures contracts based on Dubai Crude Oil, Brent North Sea Crude Oil, differential between the light sweet crude oil and the four domestic grades of crude oil and a few more. Oil options are also traded on NYMEX. Now Dubai Crude Oil Futures contract is very popular. So, NYMEX offers you a host of futures as well as options contracts based on crude oil.

The NYMEX contract for the light sweet crude is the most liquid of all the crude oil contracts. A standard crude oil contract is based on 1,000 barrels of crude oil that will be delivered to Cushing Oklahoma if not settled in cash before the expiry of the contract. The E-mini crude oil contract trades on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) GLOBEX platform and is cleared at NYMEX. It is based on 500 barrels of crude oil. Now as a retail trader, you can trade the E-Mini crude oil contract. If you have been dabbling into futures trading than you must know that futures trading is risky and can easily wipe out the capital in your trading account in a matter of minutes. So what to do? One and easy option is to stay away from the crude oil futures trading. The more difficult option is to first learn futures trading do some paper trading and only then venture into this difficult proposition. Read the whole article, I will give you a very good solution at the end.

A barrel of oil contains 42 US gallons. Crude oil is traded in US dollars per barrel. In other words, the price of crude oil is quoted in US dollars per barrel. Now trading at NYMEX can be through open outcry during the regular treading hours as well as electronic web based trading after hours.

You can visit the website of NYMEX and read a more about the crude oil trading that takes place at that exchange. Now trading crude oil futures contracts require you to be in tune with the market sentiment. Trends in crude oil market don’t develop suddenly and they don’t reverse suddenly. This is something good for you as a crude oil futures trader.

When a trend in the crude oil market develops, it may last for a few months to a year. It all depends on the global supply and demand situation of the crude oil. If you can spot a trend in the crude oil market in its early stage and ride it till its reversal, you can make a good profit. Now, just keep this in mind that crude oil prices are highly susceptible to global geopolitical situation and react violently to any political global uncertainty.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

categories: forex,stocks,trading,mutual funds,day trading,finance,investing,business,wealth,ecommerce,market news,currency trading,real estate,money

Trading Crude Oil Futures (Part I)

 

One thing should be clear to you. Energy markets will be a major focal point in the global financial makers and the global economy for many years to come. The key to understanding energy trading is to understand oil, natural gas, gasoline and heating oil futures. Again crude oil prices have started rising. The recent price of crude oil was quoted as $ 80 per barrel. It is being predicted that the price will soon reach the $ 100 per barrel mark. Analysts are of the opinion that this price might reach as high as $ 200 per barrel. In any case, with the end of global recession, the demand for crude oil will again rise making the oil prices go sky high as the supply cannot keep up with the rising demand.

NYMEX trades futures and options contracts for crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, coal, electricity and propane. NYMEX is also home to trading in metals. Trading in energy futures is centralized at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange.

For smaller traders NYMEX offers e-mini contracts for oil and natural gas that also trades on the GLOBEX network of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Trading in NYMEX is conducted in two divisions: 1) The NYMEX Division and 2) The COMEX Division.

Sometimes the rise in oil prices leads to the increase in interest rates through the bond market and the actions of central banks and the other times the opposite happens. Rise in oil prices if often inflationary. As a trader, you should know this fact that oil price rise often tends to slow down the economy and lower retail sales as well as consumer confidence with lower traffic on the highways.

High oil prices are considered to be inflationary and tend to slow down the economy. Low oil prices are always considered good for the economy. As a trader, you should know this fact that oil price rise often tends to slow down the economy and lower retail sales as well as consumer confidence with lower traffic on the highways. Sometimes the rise in oil prices leads to the increase in interest rates through the bond market and the actions of central banks and the other times the opposite happens. Rise in oil prices if often inflationary. Now all these effects have a time lag factor built in them. If the crude oil prices increase or jump suddenly like that in’73, it takes time for the increased oil prices to start affecting the other factors in the economy.

Some people consider the Peak Oil idea as controversial but this concept is increasingly plausible given the state of the global oil industry. Oil production in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria has peaked and is going down. Non OPEC sources of oil like North Sea and Mexico are also showing sign of declining production. There has been no major oil well discovery for the last few decades.

Oil production in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria has peaked and is going down. Non OPEC sources of oil like North Sea and Mexico are also showing sign of declining production. There has been no major oil well discovery for the last few decades. Some people consider the Peak Oil idea as controversial but this concept is increasingly plausible given the state of the global oil industry.

Now you should keep these facts in the background of your mind as a trader. In any case, most of the experts now agree that in the next 10-20 years, the oil production will peak and after that it will start declining. 1) Demand fluctuates but supply of oil is finite. 2) The world runs on oil and any threat to the supply of oil often leads to rising prices. As an oil trader your primary goal is to consider the effects of events on the supply of oil and correlate this effect with your charts.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

categories: forex,stocks,trading,day trading,finance,business,investing,wealth,market news,currency trading,market news,real estate,ecommerce,money

Seasons In Trading

 

The next best holiday bets are the Labor Day and the Memorial Day because they fall before the first day of trading in September and June respectively. The day before the President’s day is the worst day and the day after the Easter is the worst day after. However, you should keep in mind that a lot of other factors also come into play and you have a lot of room for error.

The best time of the year to own stocks is the Santa Claus rally which for all practical purposes is the 17 day stretch from December 21 to January 7. This is the best time of the year. Most of the folks usually feel fairly good about themselves around this time of the year.

FED always wants the consumer confidence high during this part of the year. The more shopping the consumers are going to do, the more companies are going to sell and earn. The more companies earn, the more their stock prices go up.FED tends to lower interest rates during holidays in order to go into the New Year with less of a worry if the economy is slowing down. There is a low trading volume which tends to exaggerate the trend if the economy is not doing well and is slowing down. However, when you are dealing with seasonality, you should keep these facts in your mind:

1) The market is not longer static. The seasonal effect may get interrupted by other events. More and more people have real time access to information and larger amounts of capital than at any time in the past.

2) At the end of the year, institutional investors want to make their results look as good as possible to their shareholders and tend to buy the stocks and so on. Institutional investors like mutual funds, hedge funds and insurance companies have become important players in the markets. So in case of an event free environment, seasonal tendencies may hold up fairly well.

3) These are the times for day traders and swing traders. With fewer people willing to hold stocks for longer periods, it is very difficult to predict seasonality. The days of long term investing or what you call buy and hold are dead! Frequent market crashes have taught the investing public that investing for the long term is fairly risky. So there is more short term trading going on.

4) The recent market crash was the result of CMO and Default Swaps bringing down the banks and Insurance companies in ways that had not been anticipated or foreseen by the analysts. Many had assumed that derivate securities are safe. Infact they have highly unpredictable tendencies. Derivates and outside the market trading activities can result in highly unpredictable patterns.

Many things are changing. The world is always changing. There is a change in demographics also taking place. With the aging of the population, the overall trend will be towards more income producing investments. So with everyone talking about the seasonal tendencies in the market, it reliability becomes less diminished.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. First trade on your Forex Demo Account!

categories: forex,stocks,mutual funds,trading,day trading,finance,investing,business,wealth,ecommerce,currency trading,market news,personal finance,retirement