Following a trend is great. But if the trend is moving quickly, you want to know that so that you can get ahead of it. If the rate of change of the ...
Following a trend is great. But if the trend is moving quickly, you want to know that so that you can get ahead of it. If the rate of change of the trend is going up, rising prices are going to follow quickly.
What we have been talking about is Momentum! Just like high school physics, momentum is the rate of change and is calculated by dividing the closing price today by the closing price ten days back and multiplying it by hundred.
This is your shockingly simple momentum indicator that you can use profitably in your trading. Now, if the price did not change, the momentum indicator will obviously will be 100. If the price went down, the momentum indicator will be less than 100 and if the price went up, the momentum indicator will be more than 100. Now, when the momentum indicator is greater than 100, the trend is expected to continue in the future.
This momentum indicator tells you what is most likely to happen in the future not what happened in the past. So it is a leading indicator. You must have heard about momentum investing or you can even call it momentum trading. In momentum investing , you buy a security at a high price and sell it even at a more higher price unlike ordinary investing where you buy low and sell high. The trick is to know that the price will continue to rise when you do momentum investing. How do you know that the security prices will continue to rise in the future? By looking at the business fundamentals like the sales or profits, if you find them to be rising and accelerating at the same time the security price is rising,there is momentum behind this move!
As said before, instead of investing in a security or a stock you can do momentum investing. When you are doing ordinary investing, you are waiting for its price to appreciate to give you a capital gain. This price appreciation might take from a few months to even years tying down your capital in that investing. However, in momentum investing, you search for stocks that have rising prices that are expected to continue for sometime. So you buy high and sell even higher within a few weeks making a decent profit. You can use that profit to do more investing.
What a momentum investor is looking for is a security that is going to move big. But this move big is going to happen on a long term horizon instead of a few days. The expectation is to make money on the longer term. The thought is that if the security is starting to go up in price, it will keep going up in prices unless something dramatic happens to change. In the meantime, you can make a lot of money.
There are many way to do momentum investing. One is the price momentum that we have talked above. The other can be Earning Momentum. If you are a long haul investor who keeps an eye on the financial statements of different companies and you find that the quaterly earnings are going up steadily from one quater to another. What this means is that the stock price will also accelerate and follow suit.
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Are you looking for ideas to start a home based business in 2009? A successful home based business is a dream come true. It must be your dream too to start your own home based business. Internet has made it possible for many people like you and me to have a home based business. But the challenge is how to start a successful home based business. Yeah, soon you will be having information overload.
Most home based businesses run around MLM or Network Marketing. Most home based businesses require you to sell a product online and build your down line. I am talking from my experience. Now if you are not ready to buy a $1000-$3000 product to join an MLM or network marketing company than you might as well drop the idea of starting a home based business! You have to purchase the product just in order to become a member of that home based business. When you do that you will be provided with your own website link that you are required to promote online!
You are supposed to recruit new members under you. Now the hard part starts. You are supposed to advertise your website online. Most of the advertising methods are costly. If you do PPC on Google, Yahoo and MSN, you will find that most of the relevant keywords have been already taken over by your competitors and are costing something like $1-2. Are you ready to pay $1-2 just for someone to click on your website? Are you ready to spend thousands of dollars on advertising the website?
Competition, competition and competition! Did you hear about Herbalife? Well it was a wellness and fitness product company that became so popular that everyone started to promote it and in a few years the market was saturated with Herbalife affiliates trying to sell the products. Where ever you will go you will find a lot of competition! Start hopping from one home based Business Company to another and you will find the market saturated with them. What to do then? Maybe not and if you try free advertising methods, they don’t work at all.
Stop wasting money on buying home based business membership and then wasting hundreds and even thousands of dollars on advertising that home based business opportunity. I give you a very easy solution. Have you ever heard of forex?
Is forex trading difficult. You bet it is. Then why I am suggesting you to try forex trading. Forex market is the world’s largest market. Everyday 3 trillion dollars get transacted in the forex market. I think so you must have heard about forex trading.
Tom Strignano says if you can read an email, you can trade with his forex signals. The other day, one of the members made a cool $15,000 with his forex signals. I want to introduce Tom Strignano to you. He has been the Chief Currency Trader in a number of elite banks. He has been a professional forex trader for the last 25 years.
If you can read an email, you can follow the instruction in his forex signals with a few clicks, you can start making money trading forex. You trade forex from anywhere. You can even trade forex from your cell. Yeah, any mobile phone can be used to trade forex. Subscribe to his forex signals. Try them and see if you can make money with them. If you can’t, simply forget about them. You must be thinking that you need to pay something to try these forex signals. Not at all! Try these forex signals for two weeks risk free on your demo account and see how much money they make for you. Nothing can be more risk free than this! He will not only provide you with his forex signals but will also mentor you and coach you in forex trading. Now there is no selling, no advertising in this home business.
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Index options premium all depends on the volatility of the market. The duller the market, the lower the index options premium. Well it depends on the expectations of the traders whether the market will move sufficiently in the near future for them to exercise their buy or sell rights. The more volatile the market, the higher then index option premium! Infact there are many factors that can affect the options premium like theta Vega, gamma. Now what are these terms and from where they have cropped up? These terms are known as the options Greeks. Before you start trading options, you need to learn what these terms means.
Options offer investors far more trading strategies as compared to futures. Such strategies can range from highly speculative to highly conservative. Options are a far more basic instrument than the ETFs and futures. You can easily replicate any ETF or futures contract with an option but the reverse is not true. In case, the market does not decline, you only lose the premium that you had paid for the put option. Suppose, you are afraid that the market is going to go down in the near future! You can protect yourself from this decline in the market by buying a out index option. When the market declines, the put increases in value.
Of course for anyone who buys an options contract there should be someone to sell the options contract to make a complete transaction. Now the seller of a call options believes that the market will not move sufficiently up in the near future so he/she can make money by writing a call options contract and selling it to someone who believes the maker will move up.
The buyers of the put options are in a way insuring their portfolio against possible market decline but who are the sellers of the put options. They are primarily those investors who are willing to buy those stocks but only at lower prices. So in a way, buying and selling of options contracts make options trading a zero sum game. Either the market will move up or it will not. Either the option seller will win or the options buyer will win. The development of the stock index futures and the index options was a major development in 1980s for investors and money managers.
So in a way, buying and selling of options contracts make options trading a zero sum game. Either the market will move up or it will not. Either the option seller will win or the options buyer will win. The development of the stock index futures and the index options was a major development in 1980s for investors and money managers. The buyers of the put options are in a way insuring their portfolio against possible market decline but who are the sellers of the put options. They are primarily those investors who are willing to buy those stocks but only at lower prices. Options are an important component of any money manager portfolio. Many hedging strategies now depend on options.
ETFs give you the familiarity of the stocks but like index futures much higher liquidity and superior tax efficiency. The Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) gave the investor still more ways to diversify across all market with very low costs.
Index options give the investors the ability to insure the value of their portfolios at the lowest possible prices and save on the transaction costs and taxes. Why don’t you try trading index options?
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing from heaven. Discover a revolutionary System!
Capitalization or cap refers to the combined value of all the share of a company’s stocks. The division between large cap, mid cap and small cap are often blurry and not sharp. When you start looking for good stocks, you often come across these terms like large cap, mid cap, small cap, growth and value. Let’s discuss these terms for a moment.
Mid caps are companies with $1 to $5 Billion in capitalization and small caps are companies with $250 million to $1 Billion in capitalization. Anything below $250 million can be considered as micro cap. However the following divisions are generally accepted: Large caps are companies with over $5 Billion in capitalization.
Perhaps the most important ratio is the Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E). Now the most important term that you come across is growth stocks and value stocks. How do you determine this is a growth stock or a value stock? Suppose, company ABC stock is presently selling for $50. Now suppose that last year company ABC earned $5 for every share of the stock outstanding. This means stock ABC P/E ratio is 50/5=10. So the higher the P/E ratio, the more investors are willing to pay for the stock. What is the P/E ratio? The P/E ratio divides the price of the stock by the earnings per share.
Now the higher the P/E ratio, the more growth the company is supposed to have. So it can be either the company is growing real fast of the investor have high hopes of its growth. Now these hopes can be realistic or foolish, you never know! Now, if you follow financial news than you must know that the large growth companies always grab the headlines. But do the growth stocks really make best investment? The lower the P/E ratio, the more value the company has. Low P/E ratio companies are not considered to be the movers and shakers in the market.
The lower the P/E ratio, the more value the company has. Low P/E ratio companies are not considered to be the movers and shakers in the market. Now, if you follow financial news than you must know that the large growth companies always grab the headlines. But do the growth stocks really make best investment? According to Fama and French, two famous researchers who did ground breaking research on stocks, over the last 77 years, large growth stocks have only seen 9.9% annualized rate of return as compared to 11.5% for the large value stocks.
The most probable cause seems to be their immense popularity. Since most of the headlines are captures by high growth companies, investors seem to think that they are the best investments. Now intuitively you might have thought that growth stocks are better. What can be the reason for their lower performance over the years?
Let’s go back to the IPO of Google. Think about Google, how its stock price shot up within a matter of weeks after it hit the market. Weeks after that it began to cool off. In 2007, Google stock was selling something around $500. So large growth stocks tend to get overpriced before you are able to buy them!
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The end of fossil fuel resources is near. The way oil and other natural resources have been extracted from the earth in the last century; the world is in danger of facing global warming as well as depletion of these precious resources. Do you know China is the largest producer of coal? Coal production n China would peak somewhere around 2010-2020. Are you aware of the fact that the peak of the global oil production (all liquids, including unconventional oil) will peak in the next few years.
The global peak of uranium production lies somewhere around2025-2050. The global peak of natural gas production lies somewhere around 2025! You must be thinking what to do every available source of energy seems to be peaking in the near future?
But there are many safe and environmentally friendly methods to generate the energy required. Uptill now these methods had been ignored maybe because they were a bit expensive. They were expensive in the sense that these methods factor in the external costs that were previously being ignored. Do you know this fact that the US Department of Energy has estimated that there is enough available offshore wind energy of the coasts of US that can nearly cover the current US electricity capacity? So what will fill this void in energy production in the coming decades?
If every bulb in the US was replaced with an energy efficient fluorescent lamp, enough energy could be saved to shut down around 100 power plants. If all the care in US were hybrids by 2025 that would roughly reduce 80% of the US oil import.
So the solution is already there but it requires investments which are right now not forth coming. This will soon change as the global supply of oil starts to dwindle. The solution is already there and as the end of fossil fuel nears which is only a decade away, more and more alternative energy solutions will be used to generate cheap energy. Enough power could be generated for the entire US by covering only 9% of Nevada desert with parabolic trough systems. This is something like a plot of land 100 by 100 miles.
This is something that is bound to happen. The supplies of fossil fuel are finite and will be exhausted in the near future. You might have seen only a glimpse of that last year in 2008 when crude oil prices jumped to around $150 per barrel.
This prediction is based on our insatiable energy consumption and the lack of conventional supplies to meet the growing energy demand. This is most probably the safest long term bet that you can make in the long term. There is little doubt that companies operating in the green energy sector will ultimately become the major players in the overall energy generation and transportation mix of tomorrow.
Exactly one hundred years back, the oil century started. It was with the advent of the modern automobile that oil became a global necessity. Imagine Henry Ford in’09 asking you to invest in his Ford Motor Company that is about to mass produce a horseless carriage. Keeping in view the above facts, investing in green energy stocks in the best long term investment that you can make!
He tells you that this invention could change the entire landscape of the country. Knowing everything that you know right now with the power of hind sight with you, you will definitely say yes. But many folks in that year of’09 were skeptical about Model T success. This is now 2009, exactly a century has passed. Do you think investing in green energy stocks is a bad idea?
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Every investor wants stock prices in his/her portfolio to go up. What would make a stock rise so much? The whole point of investing in stocks is to choose one that has the greatest chance of a rising share value. Don’t we all look for a stock that we could buy for $10 and later on sell for $300 per share? Well, how can we proceed to accomplish such a feat?
So if the company does well, its stock will go up in price and if the company does poorly its stock will go down in price. Buying a stock is essentially buying a small piece of the company and its future potential for growth and profits.
Now why does the stock goes up and down with the performance of the company. Actually the real force behind the stock rise and fall is the market place. The marketplace is in fact buyers and sellers, individuals and organizations that want to buy stocks or sell them.
Any place where buying and selling takes place can be considered This buying and selling of stocks can only take place in exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange and over the counter markets like NASDAQ. If there are more buyers of the stock, its value will go up and if there are more sellers in the market, the stock price goes down.
Now it doesn’t mean that if the company does well and is showing good profits and earnings, its stock price will go up. Sometimes you will find that the company does well and is posting good quarterly earnings but still its stock price goes down. What’s the reason behind this?
In reality the price of stock depends on the investor’s expectations. The price of a stock goes down because there are more sellers than buyers. So why is it so? The stock price does not go up or down just based on the company’s present performance. Stock price goes up and down because of what the buyers and sellers expect will happen with the company in the near future.
However, the performance of the stock and the performance of the company over the long term have a logical relationship. In the short term, the behavior of the stock price is irrational and it can behave in crazy and illogical ways.
The bottom line is don’t worry about the short term gyrations of the stock price. Focus on finding companies that are strong, well positioned in the right industries and have solid fundamentals like a good management, good product, good service, growing industry, rising sales, increasing profits and so on. Picking a stock doesn’t happen in a vacuum. Understanding the company’s industry and the overall economic environment is critical to stock picking process. Sometimes the industry and the economy matters more than the company.
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As said, this has to be done on a quarterly basis. The reason MLPs exist is to distribute all available cash back to the MLP unit holders. The following factors are considered before determining the amount of cash distributed to each individual investor:
1) The difference between the total cash flow and the cash flow ploughed back into the MLP for futures growth. 2) How many units you hold as an MLP investor. 3) The incentive distribution rights created for the GP.
So once you decide to invest in commodities, you have many investment options like mutual funds, stocks, ETFs as well as MLPs. You must do your due diligence while making your investment decisions. There are always pros and cons of each investment vehicle!
So investing in an MLP is just like investing in stocks. Investing in MLPs is quite simple. Since an MLP is a publicly traded entity. You can simply invest in an MLP by calling your broker and telling him or her how many units of a particular MLP you are interested in buying.
There are not many MLPs registered in US. Something like 50 MLPs is being publicly traded in the United States. Out of these 50, 40 are energy MLPs meaning that they are involved in the storage terminals, pipelines, transportation, refining and distribution. Majority of MLPs trade on NYSE with a few trading on NASDAQ and AMEX! So you don’t have to do your research from a long list of MLPs. MLP sector is growing.
Moreover, investing in pipelines and other energy infrastructure offers steady cash flow streams for an MLP. You only need to remember this 90% of the income that comes to an MLP should come from the production and distribution of commodities for these MLPs to have the tax exempt status.
So when you invest in an MLP, you should look for answers to the following questions: 1) What’s the historical payout of the MLP? 2) How much is the cash flow? And so on. If your brokerage firm has published some research on the MLPs, you can reference that.
Don’t forget there is always some risk involved in any investment. The more return you demand, the more risk you will have to take. Now investing in MLPs do come with some risks like most of the infrastructure is like pipelines and drilling rigs that are vulnerable to natural disasters and earth quakes like the Hurricane Katrina, so any such event can have a negative impact on your investment.
There is another risk related with the management. You don’t have much say in the management of the MLP. Running an MLP is basically a GP show. If you are not satisfied with the performance of the management or its policies only thing that you can do is to withdraw your investment from that MLP. Since the MLP is fairly small at this moment, there can be liquidity issues in withdrawing your investment from an MLP. These are some of the risk that you can face while investing in an MLP.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Trade . Learn !
Many people are not aware that commodities as an asset class has a lot of potential especially in the 21st century. It is being predicted that the 21st century belongs to the commodities. If you are interested in investing in commodities than you can invest in a commodity mutual fund!
Just buy the shares of the commodity mutual fund and let its NAV appreciate before you can sell for a capital gain. This is the simplest way for you to get involved in investing in commodities as the mutual fund portfolio management will be done by a professional manager and you have to do nothing.
Now, you must have heard about the Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). ETFs are really hot investments these days. ETFs started off some three decades back but became highly popular as investment vehicles in such a short time.
Now the good thing about investing in ETFs is that they give you the diversification benefits of a mutual fund with very low fees something like 0.7% as compared to 2-4% of the mutual fund. Driven by the growing demand of commodities by the investors many financial institutions are now offering Commodity ETFs.
So unlike a mutual fund whose net asset value is calculated at the end of the day and the shares of mutual fund cannot be traded during the day, you can go both long or short on ETFs all the time. Something you cannot do with a mutual fund! ETFs have the added benefit of being able to trade like stocks giving you the powerful combination of diversification and liquidity.
This diversification plus liquidity benefit makes an ETF a better investment tool as compared to the mutual fund and the stocks. Now, you can find thousands of ETFs in the market on different market sectors, stock indexes, currencies, commodities and so on.
The Deutsche Bank Commodity Index Tracking Fund is listed on AMEX and tracks the Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity Index. This index is based on a basket of six commodities: light sweet crude oil, heating oil, gold, aluminum, corn and wheat. The first Commodity ETF in US was launched by Deutsche Bank in the start of 2006.
Now, every month a new ETF gets launched. There are a number of Commodity ETFs that track individual commodities like crude oil, gold and silver. Do your research on Commodity ETFs, you may find a good investment. This ETF invests directly in the commodity futures contract. Now one of the downsides of investing in this Commodity ETFs is that it can be fairly volatile as it is based on commodity futures contracts that get rolled monthly. Another downside to this Commodity ETF is that it is based on a basket of six commodities only.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Trade . Learn !
Many analysts are of the opinion that commodity investing maybe the best investments in the early part of the 21st century. Take the name of oil, oil is the most heavily traded commodity in the world right now. Gold is another commodity that is reaching record price levels. Gold prices for the first time have breached the unheard of $1000 per ounce barrier. Investing in commodities may be the something that investors thought of boring and dull only a few decades back but not anymore now. If you are interested in investing in companies that are involved in the production, transformation and distribution of commodities, than one of the best ways to do so is through investing in the Master Limited Partnership (MLP).
MLPs are public entities that trade on public exchanges. An MLP issues shares that trade on an exchange just like a company stocks that trades on an exchange. You can invest in an MLP by buying its shares on an exchange. The shares that an MLP issues are called Units and the investors who own them are known as Unit Holders.
Right now there are not many MLPs in the market. You will only find 3-4 dozen MLPs listed in the different stock exchanges. When you invest in an MLP, you are essentially investing in public partnership. There are tax advantages to investing in MLP. Unlike regular corporations, an MLP is only taxed once. Now most of the MLPs trade on the New York Stock Exchange. A few MLPs also trade on the NASDAQ and the AMEX. Tax exemption on MLPs gives them certain benefits that other companies in the same industry lack. There is a tax exemption on MLPs. You must be curious how this tax advantage works out. Because of
Suppose you invest $1 in the stocks of a regular corporation and you are in the 35% tax bracket. Corporate tax is 30% of it’s before tax income. This means that for each dollar that you invest you need to get at least $1/ (1-0.35) =$1.54 just in order to breakeven. So the corporation will have to generate $1.54/ (1-0.3) =$2.2 for each dollar that you invest in order to return you $1 after tax profit. Since an MLP has got the tax exempt status it will only have to generate only $1.54 for each dollar that you invest in it.
Since an MLP has got the tax exempt status it will only have to generate only $1.54 for each dollar that you invest in it. Suppose you invest $1 in the stocks of a regular corporation and you are in the 35% tax bracket. Corporate tax is 30% of its before tax income. This means that for each dollar that you invest you need to get at least $1/ (1-0.35) =$1.54 just in order to breakeven. So the corporation will have to generate $1.54/ (1-0.3) =$2.2 for each dollar that you invest in order to return you $1 after tax profit. In most cases, the majority of these GPs in MLPs are other corporate entities setup with the specific purpose of running an MLP. This tax advantage gives an MLP competitive advantage as compared to other corporations when competing for assets. This means a huge advantage for an MLP. Now an MLP is run by a General Partner (GP).
However, most GPs do a good job of running the MLP as it is in their financial interests. Now you must know as a limited partner in an MLP, you have limited voting rights. This means when you invest in an MLP, you are giving away the keys of ownership to the GP. This means you are out of the decision making in an MLP.
An MLP is obligated to distribute all available cash back to its unit holders on a quarterly basis, so you will be getting a quarterly income from your units. Secondly as the MLP expands and grows overtime, its units may give you capital gain as well. Investing in MLP units can give you quarterly cash flows as well as appreciation of the unit price. However, always do your due diligence when you want to invest in an MLP.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Trade . Learn !
Trading would be almost impossible without charts and technical analysis. Trading is all about anticipating and predicating rather than forecasting. Technical analysis is the best tool a trader can have. A picture is worth more than a thousand words.
The most important thing that you should in a market is its primary trend. Primary trend is the direction of the market that offers the least resistance forward making money. When you follow a primary trend in a bull market you look for strong stocks and in a bear market you look for stocks showing weaknesses. Knowing the primary trend and trading in its direction increases your chances of making money. So how do you find the primary trend and what tools you need to determine the primary trend? You use the following tools to determine the primary trend:
Trendlines: Knowing how to draw and use trendlines gives you an excellent start on any trade. To correctly draw a rising trendline on the chart, start with the lowest low on the chart and connect it to the lowest low preceding the highest high in the chart without bothering about the prices between the two points. Similarly to draw the down trendline, draw a line connecting the highest high on the chart to the highest high preceding the lowest low of the chart without passing through the prices between the two prices.
Moving Averages: Support level is the price where the prices stop falling and the buyers step in overcoming the selling pressure. A break in the support level is an indication that more weakness may be ahead. Moving averages are sues to smooth out the market’s trend over a given period of time and serve as an important support and resistance levels.
Resistance level is the price where prices stop rising and the sellers overcome the buying pressure. A break above the resistance level is an indication that the market is going strong.
Oscillators: Oscillators are graphic depictions of points derived from the mathematical formulas that are plotted below the price charts. Knowing these mathematical formulas is not important as a trader. What is more important to know is the fact that oscillators produce useful mathematical data that can help you tell whether the market is overbought or oversold and whether the momentum of the primary trend in the market is still strong or there is a potential change in the primary trend ahead? Two important oscillators that you should be familiar with are RSI and MACD.
Bollinger Bands: Bollinger bands are calculated by plotting points one or more standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average. However, you can calculate Bollinger Bands with any moving average. Bollinger bands are also known as volatility bands or envelopes. Bollinger bands give you visual evidence when the market has travelled too far in any one direction.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing from heaven. First trade on your Account!
